Weekly Market Updates
A New Fed Regime: Warsh, Policy Direction, and Treasury Market Consequences
May 11, 2026
As of early May 2026, the Fed stands on the cusp of one of its more significant leadership transitions in recent memory. Jerome Powell’s term as chair concludes on May 15 after guiding the central bank through the post-pandemic inflation surge and a rate-cutting campaign seemingly on hold, and Kevin Warsh — a former Fed governor, investment banker, and vocal critic of post-2008 monetary policy — appears poised for confirmation. Powell has signaled he will remain on the Board of Governors for an "indefinite period" until the ongoing investigation concludes with finality, providing continuity but explicitly declining any “shadow chair” role. His role as Fed Governor ends January 2028.
AI Wave Continues to Power Technology Earnings Boom
May 4, 2026
A frenzied week of macroeconomic data and big earnings news offered glimpses under the hood of both the U.S. economy and some of corporate America’s highest profile companies. Here we’ll focus on the latter, as last week brought eagerly anticipated quarterly results from mega-cap artificial intelligence (AI) hyperscalers Alphabet (GOOG/L), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT), as well as Apple (AAPL). While scrutiny on capital investments remains high, takeaways from results broadly leaned positive, in our view.
American Industrial Renaissance: Fact or Fiction?
April 27, 2026
The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base. Facing effects ranging from structural employment shifts to fragile supply chains to national security, over the last decade, Washington has been both vocal and active about bringing manufacturing back stateside.
Rethinking Fixed Income Allocation in a Multi‑Polar World
April 20, 2026
As we wrote in our recent Rate and Credit View, the case for global bonds has strengthened as the structure of fixed income markets — and the sources of risk within them — have become increasingly asymmetric. The U.S. bond market represents less than half of global fixed income outstanding, yet many portfolios remain overwhelmingly concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and credit, effectively tying outcomes to a single fiscal authority, a single central bank, and domestic yield curves.
The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride
April 13, 2026
Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Don’t forget, behind today’s headlines, the economy is still dealing with negative trade and immigration shocks and a positive artificial intelligence (AI) shock.
Lessons From Past Conflicts for Today’s Stock Market
April 6, 2026
As strikes on Iran continue and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, it’s clearly too early for market watchers to stop thinking about geopolitical risk. As discussed in recent commentaries but worth repeating, history shows stocks often recover quickly from wars and other military engagements, especially when economies are resilient and earnings fundamentals remain strong.
Earnings Likely to Grow Double-Digits Again; Will Markets Care?
March 30, 2026
Earnings drive stock prices over time, but not all the time. Clearly, we’re in an environment where stocks are moving on developments in the Mideast and related moves in oil prices and interest rates. At the risk of writing about something that markets may not care much about right now, here we share some thoughts on the upcoming earnings season and the earnings outlook for the rest of the year.
Private Credit Under Pressure: Liquidity Mismatches in an AI-Disrupted Cycle
March 23, 2026
Corporate credit markets have become unsettled about the potential for advanced agentic AI tools from firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI to automate functions across legal, analytical, marketing, and sales workflows, effectively targeting the software as a service (SaaS)/enterprise software space.
Why Oil Prices Matter Less — But Still Move Headline Inflation
March 16, 2026
Lower oil “intensity” — less oil used per dollar of economic output — means energy shocks have a smaller impact on growth than in past decades. And from the supply side, the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum products. Because we produce more than we import, the economy is less affected by volatile oil prices than during the 1970s and ‘80s, for example.
Markets Tested as Iran Conflict Continues
March 9, 2026
It’s difficult to separate the human and emotional side of war from the economic and market impacts. Without minimizing the human element, we focus on markets here. From that perspective, the energy market is the primary way through which this crisis will affect markets globally. Oil and natural gas production and transit have already been disrupted, sending prices sharply higher. If these disruptions are severe and long lasting, they have the potential to influence inflation expectations, weigh on business confidence, and elevate volatility across asset classes, all of which will likely translate into lower stock prices. Simply put, the more intense and prolonged the geopolitical shock, the larger the likely market impact.
How LPL Research Thinks About Dividends
March 2, 2026
Dividend strategies, a.k.a. equity income strategies, have outperformed to start the year, owing to the value-led cyclical rotation we are seeing in domestic equity markets. Looking beyond current performance, this week, we ask and answer the question “How should I think about dividend stocks or building an equity income portfolio?”
LPL Research’s 2026 Strategic Asset Allocation
February 23, 2026
Our Strategic Asset Allocation is the long‑horizon blueprint that guides portfolios across market cycles. For 2026, we maintain a modest, but slightly reduced, underweight to total equity risk, reduced domestic small caps, increased exposure to developed international and U.S. large value equities, and maintain a purposeful allocation to real assets and select alternative investments. Core high‑quality fixed income remains the anchor. We are measured with longer-duration Treasuries given less stable correlations, which supports a more balanced risk posture at a time when the compensation for taking equity risk is fair but not abundant.
From Bubble Fears to Disruption Risk: The New AI Market Narrative
February 17, 2026
Wall Street narratives rarely stay still, and recent weeks have underscored how quickly sentiment can change as perceived new information challenges the status quo. Widely discussed anxiety over a potential artificial intelligence (AI) bubble fueled by relentless capital spending on data center infrastructure has now transitioned into a broader set of worries about industry‑level disruption driven by rapidly advancing AI platforms. The software sector has been in the eye of this storm, with legacy enterprise vendors suddenly confronting fears of displacement. That concern has ignited a negative feedback loop that is fueling a ‘sell now ask questions later’ backdrop in the market.
Five Reasons the Run in Emerging Markets Could Continue
February 9, 2026
After a stellar 2025 in which emerging market (EM) equities returned 34%, 2026 is off to a good start with the MSCI EM Index up 7% year to date. Last year’s near doubling of the S&P 500 return was driven mostly by a weakening U.S. dollar, which propped up EM returns, but attractive valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment played a role. This week we highlight five reasons we’ve warmed up to EM.
Dueling Mandates: The Fed’s Policy Caution and Treasury’s Growing Borrowing Needs
February 2, 2026
The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above‑trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near‑term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long‑run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short‑duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.
The Productivity Advantage: Powering Economic Growth in 2026
January 26, 2026
Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Beyond containing inflation, faster productivity growth also helps offset structural headwinds from slowing population growth, a shrinking labor force, and an expanding retiree cohort. Technological innovation is poised to provide the backbone for this productivity boost. The U.S. remains among the world’s productivity leaders — it ranks near the top of major advanced economies, placing it ahead of Germany, France, the U.K., Japan, and Canada.
Unearthing the Metals Melt-Up
January 20, 2026
The melt‑up in the metals market that defined 2025 has extended its strength into the early weeks of the new year, reinforcing the commodity sector’s position as one of the leading asset classes across global markets. To the surprise of most, gold outperformed the broader equity market for a third consecutive year, surging roughly 65% in 2025 and far exceeding the S&P 500’s gains. Silver delivered an even more extraordinary performance, posting its best year since 1979 with annual gains near 150% and reaching generational price highs.
Earnings Preview: Double-Digit Streak Likely to Continue
January 12, 2026
Fourth quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week with a dozen banks and asset managers in the S&P 500 slated to report. Results will come from some big names, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Tuesday; Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) on Wednesday; and Blackrock (BLK), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Thursday. After these and the rest of the results are in, we believe there could be a continuation of an impressive streak of quarters with double-digit earnings growth, expanding profit margins despite tariffs, and another quarter of strong earnings growth from the technology sector and the AI buildout.
Evaluating Our 2025 Forecasts: Equity, Fixed Income, and the U.S. Economy
January 5, 2026
With 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate some of our better forecasts from last year while also reviewing some misses we can learn from. In our view, we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses among our tactical asset allocation recommendations. For the second straight year, as the bull market marched on, the most impactful decision we made was probably to recommend investors stay fully invested in equities at benchmark levels throughout the entire year despite elevated valuations.
Navigating Neutral: Fed Policy Key for Fixed Income Markets in 2026
December 22, 2025
2025 was a good year for most fixed income markets but we’re approaching 2026 with caution. All-in yields are still attractive for most markets, but spreads (the additional compensation for owning riskier debt) are low, suggesting investors aren’t getting paid to take on a lot of credit risk right now. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy will be key, though, in determining returns in 2026, but with a new Chair expected at the helm by May, rate volatility could remain elevated.
Policy Tailwinds and Artificial Intelligence to Power Stocks in 2026
December 15, 2025
A strong 2025 does not mean this advance in the stock market won’t deliver more gains for investors in 2026. Several powerful cycles may help push stocks higher in 2026, most notably the AI investment cycle that has powered technology stocks in 2025. A maturing advance during a Fed rate-cutting cycle with stocks near all-time highs also bodes well for a rewarding 2026, especially given the economy may get a fiscal policy boost as stimulus from the OBBBA kicks in and boosts corporate profits and cash flows. Potential AI disappointments, possible upward pressure on long-term interest rates, renewed global trade tensions, and geopolitical instability will remain key risks for stock investors to monitor. If this outlook seems familiar, that’s because it resembles 2025.
More Keys for Markets in 2026: LPL Market Outlook Sneak Peek
December 1, 2025
In our Weekly Market Commentary on November 17, we previewed our Outlook 2026 publication, due out on December 9. We highlighted several keys for markets next year, covering the U.S. economy, stocks, and bonds. This week, we broaden our preview and tease some other factors investors will want to consider when thinking about investing in 2026.
Corporate America Cleared a High Bar This Earnings Season
November 24, 2025
Third quarter earnings season winds down over the next couple of weeks and has once again met Wall Street’s high expectations. After tariff-muddled first quarter results, companies did a good job adjusting to tariffs in the second quarter and continued to do so last quarter. A strong beat rate and another quarter of double-digit earnings growth proved corporate America’s resilience, bolstered by mega cap technology’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment. Here we recap third quarter earnings season, when more stayed the same than changed. Hat tip to profit margins.
Early Market Keys to 2026
November 17, 2025
In a year that could easily be defined by a few different words — including but not limited to tariffs, technology, or more broadly, uncertainty — capital markets have plugged along splendidly. Despite a near-bear market correction in April, the S&P 500 and U.S. stocks more broadly have powered higher, hurdling obstacles nearly without interruption. The bond market has also done more than hold its own, while outside of markets, the American economy has displayed resilience as well amid a challenging backdrop. As 2025 nears its final 100 calendar days, market focus is already beginning to turn forward and attempt to reconcile what market drivers could remain in place, and what could change in the first year of the new half-decade. While not an exhaustive list, here’s some of our early keys to 2026.
AI Infrastructure: A New Pillar of Economic Growth
November 10, 2025
Artificial intelligence (AI) makes daily headlines, and investors are questioning if businesses’ AI-related investment can continue at this pace. The money spent on data centers, software, and other AI-related investments reveal the structural shifts occurring in the economy. The latest on Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Loans gives us insights into the sustainability of this trend. If an economy wants to encourage innovation, entrepreneurship, and scientific development, businesses need a stable macro environment with price stability, strong property rights, and dynamic capital markets that can fund great ideas.
From Micro to Macro: A Busy Week of Market-Moving Data
November 3, 2025
There was no shortage of headlines on both the micro and macro levels last week. Earnings season ramped up as nearly half of the S&P 500’s market cap reported third quarter (Q3) results, including a handful of mega cap companies. Monetary policy captured most of the economic spotlight as the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered on expectations of another 0.25% interest rate cut and announced an end date to its quantitative tightening (QT) program.